No one knows the exact number yet. But the early estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment point to a raise somewhere between 3.8% and 4.7%, and the official figure arrives in October. Here is what the data shows right now and what it means for your monthly payment.
What is the COLA, in plain terms?
COLA stands for cost-of-living adjustment. It is the annual raise the Social Security Administration (SSA) adds to your benefit to help it keep pace with rising prices.
The idea is simple. When the cost of groceries, gas, and rent goes up, your Social Security payment should go up too, so it buys roughly the same amount it did the year before.
The 2027 COLA is the raise that will show up in payments starting in January 2027.
How much will Social Security go up in 2027?
The final number does not exist yet. The SSA will not announce it until October 2026. The figure is based on the percentage increase from the average CPI-W during the third quarter of the previous year to the average CPI-W during the third quarter of the current year. CPI-W stands for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, the inflation measure the SSA uses by law. That third-quarter data covers July, August, and September. Those months have not happened yet, so any number you see today is a forecast.
Two well-known groups publish regular estimates, and both expect a larger raise than last year.
- The Senior Citizens League is now predicting a 3.8% COLA for 2027. This is a nonpartisan group that advocates for older Americans and tracks inflation closely. Kiplinger
- Independent policy analyst Mary Johnson has a higher estimate. She currently projects a COLA of approximately 4.7%, and has said it could climb higher as more data comes in. CNBC
For comparison, Social Security beneficiaries and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients received a 2.8 percent COLA for 2026. So even the lower 2027 estimate would be a step up from this year. Social Security Administration
Because SSI payments are tied to the Social Security COLA, SSI recipients generally receive the same percentage increase.
Why are the 2027 estimates higher than last year?
The estimates climbed because inflation picked up again in the spring of 2026. The COLA tracks the CPI-W, and that index moved higher than many experts predicted at the start of the year.
A big driver has been energy. Oil prices climbed significantly during the spring of 2026, and CPI-W inflation accelerated to 3.9% as of April, the highest reading in three years. By May, the pressure had spread. The categories that saw the biggest jump in the CPI-W over the past 12 months include fuel oil, which shot up 64.1%; gasoline, which increased 40.7%; and airfare, which rose 25%. Yahoo FinanceCNBC
When prices like these rise sharply, the CPI-W rises with them, and a higher CPI-W points to a higher COLA.
Why do two estimates disagree?
It can feel confusing to see one group say 3.8% and another say 4.7%. Both are looking at the same goal, but they weigh the incoming data differently and make different assumptions about where prices head next.
The Senior Citizens League leans on a steadier, more conservative reading. Mary Johnson factors in the chance that energy prices keep climbing through the summer. “There’s a considerable likelihood that it’s going to climb even higher than 4.7% as data continues to come in, especially on the gasoline prices,” Johnson said. CNBC
Neither one is the official answer. They are educated forecasts that update as new monthly inflation reports come out. Expect the estimates to keep shifting until the third-quarter numbers are final.
When will the 2027 COLA be announced?
Mark mid-October on your calendar. The 2027 Social Security COLA should be announced in mid-October 2026, in conjunction with the release of the CPI-W data from September 2026. CNBC
After that, the SSA sends out personal notices. Beneficiaries will be notified of their specific benefit rate in December 2026, with the COLA reflected in most checks starting in January 2027. CNBC
You do not have to wait for the mailed letter. COLA notices are available online to most beneficiaries in the Message Center of their my Social Security account. If you have not set up a my Social Security account yet, it is a free and useful tool for tracking this. Social Security Administration
What would the raise add to your payment?
Here is a way to picture it. If the 3.8% estimate holds, the SSA’s analysis suggests the average retired worker’s monthly payment would rise by roughly $79, from about $2,081 to about $2,160.
A quick note on terms: the SSA pays a monthly benefit, often called a payment. Your own number depends on your work history and the age you claimed, so your raise will be based on your own benefit, not the average.
If you want to estimate your own figure, the math is straightforward. Multiply your current monthly benefit by the COLA percentage. For example, a $2,500 benefit with a 3.8% raise would go up by about $95 a month. Just remember the percentage is still an estimate until October.
The catch: Medicare can absorb part of the raise
This is the part that often surprises people, so it is worth understanding before the raise arrives.
Most people on Medicare have their Part B premium deducted directly from their Social Security payment. When that premium goes up, it eats into the COLA. For 2026, monthly Medicare Part B premiums went up 9.7% at a time when the COLA only increased Social Security benefits by 2.8%. U.S. News & World Report
Part B premiums for 2027 are not set yet. Those usually are not announced until mid-November, a few weeks after the COLA. So you will know your raise before you know your premium. Yahoo Finance
For many people, the net Social Security payment still increases after the Part B premium is deducted. But the gap is real, and it is the main reason a 3.8% raise may not feel like a 3.8% raise once it lands.
Why the COLA often falls short: CPI-W vs. CPI-E
Here is the deeper reason a raise can arrive and still leave you feeling behind. Many economists and senior advocacy groups argue that the CPI-W does not fully reflect retirees’ spending patterns.
As noted earlier, the COLA is based on the CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Read that name again. It measures the spending of working people in cities, not retirees. The basket of goods it tracks reflects how a younger, employed household spends money.
That matters because retirees spend their money differently. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an experimental index called the CPI-E, or Consumer Price Index for the Elderly. It uses the same inputs as the CPI-W but weights them differently to look more like a typical American senior’s budget. The Senior Citizens League
The difference comes down to where the money goes. The CPI-E reflects that seniors spend more of their budgets on housing and medical care than people who work in cities, and less on things like transportation, food, education, and apparel. The Senior Citizens League
Why does this create a gap? Health care and housing are two of the fastest-rising costs in the economy. Because the CPI-W gives those categories less weight than a retiree’s real budget does, it tends to understate the inflation older people actually feel. Medical care alone makes the point. As covered above, Medicare Part B premiums rose 9.7% in 2026 while the COLA was 2.8%. Many working households are not paying Medicare Part B premiums at all. For a retiree, that same premium can swallow a large slice of the raise.
Over a single year, the gap is small. Over many years, it compounds. According to The Senior Citizens League’s 2026 Loss of Buying Power report, the average Social Security payment has lost approximately 13.7 percent of its buying power since 2010. The Senior Citizens League
Some lawmakers and advocacy groups have proposed switching the COLA to the CPI-E so the raise better matches what seniors spend. That change would require an act of Congress, and it has not happened. For now, the CPI-W remains the official measure by law, so this is a feature of the system to plan around, not one you can opt out of.
Why a bigger COLA is not always good news
A larger raise sounds great. The reality is that a big COLA is a sign of high inflation, and inflation hits your budget in ways the raise may not fully cover, especially given the CPI-W gap described above.
In other words, the COLA is designed to help you keep up, not to get ahead. It is a partial inflation hedge rather than a complete safeguard. Knowing that helps you plan with clear eyes rather than counting on the raise to solve a budget gap. Capitol Skyline
What you can do while you wait
You cannot change the COLA, or the index it is based on. But you can use this window to get ready.
Take a few minutes to confirm your current benefit amount in your my Social Security account. Knowing your starting number makes it easy to estimate your 2027 payment once the percentage is announced.
It also helps to look at the full picture rather than the COLA alone. How your Social Security timing, taxes, withdrawals, and Medicare costs fit together has a far bigger effect on your retirement income than a one-year adjustment. This is exactly the kind of trade-off that is hard to see on your own, and where modeling tools or a conversation with a qualified planner can show you the moving parts side by side.
If Medicare is a big part of your concern, the same logic applies. Choosing the right coverage involves real complexity, and unbiased guidance can save you money and second-guessing.
The bottom line
As of today, the 2027 Social Security COLA is shaping up to be a larger raise than 2026, with estimates running from about 3.8% to 4.7%. The official number arrives in mid-October 2026, your personal benefit notice follows in December, and the raise shows up in payments starting in January 2027.
The single most useful step right now: log in to your my Social Security account, confirm your current benefit, and keep an eye out for the October announcement so you can plan your 2027 budget with confidence.
This article is for educational purposes only. It is not personalized financial, tax, legal, or medical advice. Social Security and Medicare rules and dollar figures change, and projections are not guarantees. Confirm your own situation with the Social Security Administration, Medicare, or a qualified professional.
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